19 Jan 2009

Go on, be impressed by statistics

It appears that if you have read one book on probability and statistics, you might as well have read them all.

One common issue that gets re-visited a lot includes the creepy coincidence known as the birthday problem, where all it takes is just 23 people in the same room to produce a 50% or greater chance of one matching birthday pair.

People are constantly amazed at how this could even happen. But once you understand the formulation of the odds behind it, it will be less amazing. To the point of being such a natural thing to happen. If it did not happen, it will be creepy instead.

But that shouldn't make you not pretend to be amazed if you did share the same birthday with the hottest girl in the room. Go on now, go break the ice.

And I think in the mind of statisticians, it is beyond a shadow of a doubt that O.J. Simpson is guiltier than sin. It was a matter of the jury that acquitted him not understanding a single damn statistic (or lie, depends on how you see it) that was thrown about in court.

And the court of public opinion is also not helping at all and confounding the matter because everyone else does not understand statistics as well!

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